Spring 2024 Outlook: Warmer Than Average For Most Of US

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at a Glance

• The northern tier is most likely to see above-average temperatures.

• Parts of the Southeast could see relatively cooler temperatures.

• The Southwest could start cooler, but may end up well above average.

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The record-mildest winter to date for many cities is likely to become a mild spring across much of the northern tier, and that warmth could spread across much of the Rockies and Plains.

The only spot that might not endure the earlier-than-usual warmth over the next few months is the Southeast coast, according to the latest outlook released Friday by The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2.

One of the biggest drivers to the forecast over the next few months is the decay of El Niño.

Since December, the northern tier – particularly the Midwest – has been some 5 to 12 degrees above average, due in part to the far-above-average water temperatures in the eastern Pacific (the footprint of El Niño). Of course, the warming world that we are living in is also contributing.

(​MORE: January Was Earth’s Warmest)

El Niño is likely to fade fairly rapidly this spring and summer.

Among the potential impacts of this transition, which also include a likely busier hurricane season and possibly a more active severe weather season for parts of the central U.S., the warmth across the U.S. could also be unleashed farther south.

“Given the expected rapid transition from El Niño to La Niña, and the increasing global warming trend, it has become difficult to forecast anything but anomalous warmth as we head towards summer,” according to Dr. Todd Crawford, Vice President of Meteorology at Atmospheric G2.

Month-By-Month Outlook

March could be cooler across the southern tier: The north-south split in temperatures that we’ve had this winter is likely to continue and possibly amplify in the first month of meteorological spring. Most notably, snowbirds lingering in Florida or spring breakers coming for sun may have to deal with temperatures a little more akin to what they would expect at home this year.

Parts of the Pacific Northwest, upper Midwest and Northeast could see well-above-average temperatures.

(​MORE: Further beef up your forecast with our detailed, hour-by-hour breakdown for the next 8 days – only available on our Premium Pro experience.)

A warmer shift is set to begin in April: Southern portions of the Rockies and Plains could see a robust shift toward warmer temperatures. Temperatures are likely to remain above average in the northern U.S. while staying near or slightly below average in the Southeast.

A warmer end to spring is likely: Above-average temperatures may spread through much of the Rockies and Plains.

The warmest spot relative to May averages is likely to be the upper Midwest to northern New England.

Temperatures are more likely to be close to average in Florida compared to the first two months of spring.

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